head-to-head national polls

Here is some additional data to consider when pondering the strength of Obama’s current campaign.

I’ve calculated the average of the 15 most recent head-to-head national polls and Obama’s average is 47.2 and John McCain’s is 43.0. In three of these 15 polls Obama hit the 50 percent threshold (50 twice and 51 once).

I then calculated the average of the 15 polls taken in the 2004 Bush-Kerry race at roughly equivalent times in campaign season (the Democratic convention was at the end of July in 2004, so I pushed back the 15-poll average to just before that convention).